The Conservatives make history by taking a usually “safe” Labour seat in Copeland. Labour manages to cling onto the Stoke-on-Trent Central seat. Percentages show the margins narrowed between parties. Gareth Snell beats former favourite to win – UKIP’s Paul Nuttall. Stoke and Copeland are two of the most important by-elections in recent political history.

Trudy Harrison for the Conservative party made history by beating Labour’s Gillian Troughton in the Copeland by-election. Harrison was elected as the constituency’s first Tory MP by 13,748 votes to 11,601 for Labour’s Gillian Troughton on a turnout of 51%.

Meanwhile, Labour managed to hang onto its Stoke-on-Trent Central seat after Gareth Snell beat the former favourite to win – UKIP’s Paul Nuttall.

Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage said last week that the result of the Stoke by-election was “absolutely fundamental” to the party’s future. UKIP was a favourite to win the seat until a range of scandals hit Nuttall’s popularity. The number of votes actually slipped for Labour, as did its margin of victory.

Both by-elections were the two most important by-elections in recent political history in the UK.

Both constituencies provide a significant window into Britain's electorate right now and provides the political parties with a litmus test for how their parties are being perceived.

(This article was a live blog up until the timestamp below)

3.15 - "Nothing like this happened for the last century"

Andrew Stephenson, the Tory MP for Pendle, who worked on Trudy Harrison's campaign, told Business Insider's Adam Payne:

"Nothing like this happened for the last century. It's been a staggering night. UKIP failed to perform both in here and in Stoke we actually increased our vote share. For a governing party to increase its vote share in a by election is pretty unheard of."

"I think she fought a really positive and uplifting campaign. It was about jobs, the nuclear industry and improving the infrastructure this area desperately needs. Trudy is forward looking. She has four daughters and thinks about their future."

3.10 - LIB DEMS REACT TO THE RESULTS

Liberal Democrat president Sal Brinton, in Stoke, said the group's vote was up from 4% to 10%:

"The Potteries decided there was no need to have UKIP's official leader in parliament when UKIP's unofficial leader is already in Number 10, pursuing a hard Brexit."

"We would have done even better but for many voters, drawn to the Lib Dems, who felt they just couldn't risk being represented by a UKIP MP, so reluctantly backed Labour. Paul Nuttall called this seat Brexit Central but it turned out to be the end of the line for UKIP.

"There is also little comfort for Labour, whose vote share has more than halved here in less than two decades. This is on top of an incredibly tough night for them in Copeland. It shows that if we are to turn out this divided and uncaring Conservative Brexit government, the Liberal Democrats will be the ones making the progressive case to keep Britain open, tolerant and united.

"We started from a low base here but our vote is picking up and this is yet another sign that the Lib Dem fight-back is on."

3.07 - LABOUR LEADER JEREMY CORBYN REACTS TO THE RESULTS

Gillian Troughton Jeremy Corbyn

Foto: Corbyn (R) with losing Labour candidate Troughton.sourceDanny Lawson PA Wire/PA Images

Jeremy Corbyn MP, Leader of the Labour Party, responded to the Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland by-elections with the following statement:

"Labour's victory in Stoke is a decisive rejection of UKIP's politics of division and dishonesty. But our message was not enough to win through in Copeland.

"In both campaigns, Labour listened to thousands of voters on the doorstep. Both constituencies, like so many in Britain, have been let down by the political establishment.

"To win power to rebuild and transform Britain, Labour will go further to reconnect with voters, and break with the failed political consensus."

A spokesperson for Corbyn commented on the Stoke result:

"Labour's excellent campaign has won a clear victory in an election UKIP and the Tories threw everything at. Stoke has rejected UKIP's politics of division and dishonesty. UKIP's claim to represent working class people has been exposed as a sham."

02.58 - TRUDY HARRISON FOR THE CONSERVATIVES WINS THE COPELAND BY-ELECTION

The Conservatives clinched the Copeland by-election in a historic victory over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party.

Trudy Harrison was elected as the constituency's first Tory MP by 13,748 votes to 11,601 for Labour's Gillian Troughton on a turnout of 51%.

Harrison increased the Conservatives' share of the vote by a huge 8% from the 2015 general election. She won 44% of the vote to Troughton's 37%.

Here is her speech on video:

The next MP for #copeland willbe Conservative candidate Trudy Harrison who has taken the seatfrom Labour #bbctw pic.twitter.com/otMgR0cJbu

#copeland#bbctwpic.twitter.com/otMgR0cJbuFebruary24, 2017

02.27 - WATCH THE VIDEO OF LABOUR'S GARETH SNELL'S SPEECH HERE

He says "I am proud to call the Potteries my home, and I am prouder still to have been elected its next member of Parliament."

"I am proud to call thePotteries my home, and I am prouder still to have been elected itsnext member of Parliament" says @gareth_snell pic.twitter.com/pjpyIKYuNp

@gareth_snellpic.twitter.com/pjpyIKYuNpFebruary24, 2017

2.22 - CONSERVATIVES' TRUDY HARRISON ARRIVES IN COPELAND FOR THE RESULTS

Trudy Harrison has justarrived pic.twitter.com/WHV6R88ucv

pic.twitter.com/WHV6R88ucvFebruary24, 2017

2.19 - UKIP'S NUTTALL RESPONDS TO A PRESS SCRUM

nuttall5

Foto: sourceSky News

"We're not going anywhere, I'm not going anywhere," he said. He said there are plenty of other opportunities for UKIP to gain support.

2.15 - LABOUR HANGS ON TO STOKE SEAT

Here are the results:

Gareth Snell (Labour): 7,853 (37.09%, -2.22%) Paul Nuttall (UKIP): 5,233 (24.72%, +2.07%) Jack Brereton (Conservative): 5,154 (24.35%, +1.80%)

1.55 - MEANWHILE, RAPPER PROFESSOR GREEN IS MINGLING IN THE STOKE COUNTING HALL

He is there to apparently film a documentary on young, white men.

https://twitter.com/ianjsilvera/status/834944439512608775

1.53 - RESULTS FOR STOKE ARE MEANT TO DROP ANY TIME NOW

UKIP's Paul Nuttall gives some insight into why he may lose in this video ...

"If I haven't wonit's because I didn't get enough votes" #nuttall#stoke*result still to come* pic.twitter.com/mbUZbDaIW9

#nuttall#stokepic.twitter.com/mbUZbDaIW9February24, 2017

1.30 - UKIP'S PAUL NUTTALL ARRIVES IN STOKE

The arrival of the UKIP leader Paul Nuttall signals that the result for Stoke should be coming in shortly:

1.20 - SNELL VOTES STACK UP

Take a look at the massive pile of votes in Snell's tray in this video:

In one corner of this vastsportshall the votes are stacking up for Labour's @gareth_snell #byelectionpic.twitter.com/nktiZEcsgm

@gareth_snell#byelectionpic.twitter.com/nktiZEcsgmFebruary24, 2017

1.16 - TORY MP DOESN'T KNOW THE NAME OF THE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE IN STOKE

Conservative MP Matt Hancock went on Andrew Neil's This Week programme and said he campaigned hard for the two party candidates. However, it seems that he did not even know the Conservative party Stoke candidate's name:

"What's the name ofyour candidate in Stoke?" asks @afneil"He's a..." @MattHancockMP "I didnot meet him because I did not go" #bbctw pic.twitter.com/hwzvXMyyNb

@afneil@MattHancockMP#bbctwpic.twitter.com/hwzvXMyyNbFebruary24, 2017

1.12 - CORBYN IS AN 'ISSUE' FOR VOTERS IN COPELAND, WHILE NUTTALL IS A PROBLEM IN STOKE

Paul Nuttall

Foto: sourceREUTERS/Darren Staples

Political commentators say that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is a problem for voters in Copeland, which is why the usually safe seat for the party, is now up for grabs.

Meanwhile, Nuttall - who was a favourite to win the Stoke seat at one point - has now disrupted his own chances after a dreadful campaign which included a row about whether he lived in the constituency, another huge fight about whether he had lost close friends in the Hillsborough disaster, and a much smaller scandal about a UKIP canvasser urinating in a voters' garden.

All have all sent Nuttall's odds of victory plummeting, with Labour's Gareth Snell now the strong favourite to win the seat. Not only are UKIP now unlikely to win but their opponents now believe they could even come third or fourth.

UKIP MEP Gerard Batten is at the Stoke count and said that he was a victim of a character assassination by the media.

1.04 - LABOUR CANDIDATE FOR STOKE GARETH SNELL ARRIVES

gareth snell1

Foto: source SKY NEWS

The final result for Stoke is now set to be around 2 a.m. to 2.30 a.m. instead of the initially proposed 3 a.m.

Copeland is still tabled to be around 3 a.m. to 4 a.m.

12.58 - A LOT IS RIDING ON POSTAL VOTES, IN COPELAND

andrew gynne counting centre1

Foto: Andrew Gynne in the Counting Centre.sourceAdam Payne/Business Insider

Business Insider's Adam Payne, who is in Copeland, said:

"Counting is back underway in Whitehaven with a declaration expected in around three hours time. The word during the interval was that Labour and the Tories are virtually neck-and-neck with a lot riding on how postal votes come back.

"The official turnout in west Cumbria was 51.35% which is a very healthy figure given some of the dismal early projections and best efforts of Storm Doris. This is going down to the wire. Keep your eyes glued on it."

12.51 - TURNOUTS WERE HEALTHY

The recent Richmond by-election where Zac Goldsmith stood as an independent candidate (and lost) was the highest of the 10 byelections held this parliament.

The 51% the turnout in Copeland came in second.

12.43 - JENRICK MP SAYS THE FACT THERE IS NATIONAL MEDIA ATTENTION ON STOKE MEANS LABOUR HAS ALREADY LOST

JENRICK1

Foto: sourceSky News

Robert Jenrick, Conservative MP for Newark, told Sky News that the fact that Stoke, which should be a "done deal" for Labour, has the level of national media attention that it does is because people are disillusioned with Labour.

He said that the "only reason" why they are all there, is because two Labour MPs decided to step down because of the lack of faith in their leader Jeremy Corbyn.

He added that even if Labour hangs onto a seat, the fact that there is even a question of another party taking its seat means that the Labour party is in disarray.

12.35 - CANDIDATES START TURNING UP IN STOKE

12.23 - TURNOUT IN COPELAND IS 51%

Higher than expected.

12.20 - TURNOUT IN STOKE IS 38.16%

The turnout was higher than expected. Fiona Ledden, the acting returning officer confirmed:

21,200 ballots cast - 4,335 postal votes and 16,865 polling station votes.

12.16 - LIB DEMS BRIEFING THAT TORIES HAVE WON COPELAND

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/834920430137921536

12.10 - RURAL COPELAND COULD DECIDE THIS

A fascinating map posted by election analyst Matt Singh of how the Copeland constituency is divided.

12.00 - JEREMY CORBYN: "WE ALWAYS KNEW THESE WOULD BE CLOSE"

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has written this email to Labour MPs:

Dear colleagues,

I wanted to write to thank you for all of your work to support the byelections. At a difficult time for the party, in the midst of the article 50 debates, our MPs have led the way. Thank you for all you have done motivating members and activists, at our phone banks, supporting our candidates and, of course, hitting the doors day in and day out. Special thanks are of course due to Andrew Gwynne, Sue Hayman, Cat Smith, Jack Dromey and Ruth Smeeth, who have gone above and beyond to lead these campaigns on behalf of the Party. Myself, the PLP, and the whole of the Labour movement owe you a great debt of thanks.

We always knew that these were going to be competitive, close and challenging elections, but with your help we have made the arguments on the issues that matter to working people - our local NHS services, and an economy that works for the whole of the country, ensuring that no one is left behind. We should all be proud of the campaigns we have run, and I have extended my thanks, on behalf of the PLP, to the party staff who have put their lives on hold and worked seven-day weeks to make the case for Labour.

We will know more once the counts are underway, and of course, colleagues will be kept updated. But for now, thank you again, and I hope everyone has the chance to relax this evening after a long (and wet) day on the doorstep.

Best wishes Jeremy Corbyn Leader of the Labour Party

11.50 - LABOUR'S MOOD IS ON THE UP IN COPELAND

copeland counting2

Foto: Counting gets underway in the Copeland by-election at Whitehaven Sports Centre in Cumbria.sourcePA

Labour are feeling better about their chances in Copeland now as the votes come in.

Business Insider's Adam Payne tells me:

"It's still very early days here in Copeland with a declaration not expected until around 04:00 a.m. (GMT) but the mood in the Labour camp appears to be improving. The word here in the Whitehaven Sports Centre is that Gillian Troughton's strong NHS attack line has really cut through with locals. There is still a long way to go - but a tight Labour hold looks like a good bet as things stand."

11.40 - LABOUR'S NHS CAMPAIGN "CUT THROUGH" IN COPELAND

The Copeland result must be close because both sides are briefing they've lost. Here's Dan Hodges from the Telegraph and Beth Rigby from Sky News.

11.30 - THE TORY VOTE IS HOLDING UP IN COPELAND

counting centre1

Foto: sourceAdam Payne/Business Insider

Business Insider's Adam Payne tells us that the "Tory vote is holding up very well in rural areas like Embleton. Early signs suggests it's gonna be very close."

11.15 - DOUGLAS CARSWELL CONCEDES DEFEAT FOR UKIP IN STOKE

UKIP's only MP Douglas Carswell has just all but conceded defeat in Stoke. He told the audience on BBC Question Time that the "most likely outcome is Labour will win".

He added that "although we fought a good campaign... we do need to accept we have a problem and that is that we are not given the benefit of the doubt." "We need to ask ourselves what is it about our values that means people aren't giving us the benefit of the doubt."

Carswell, who is the enemy number one of former leader Nigel Farage, blamed the party's problems on the "shock and awful tactics in the run up to the last general election... that need to be addressed if we are to win seats".

11.05 - SOME LABOUR OPTIMISM IN COPELAND

Not everyone is feeling gloomy in Labour's Copeland campaign. My colleague Adam Payne reports that among some activists there is optimism that a fall in support for UKIP could help them hold on.

10.55 - BLAME GAME BEGINS

Polls have been closed for less than an hour and the blame game has already begun. Newsnight editor Ian Katz reports that Corbyn's team is planning to lay the blame for defeat in Copeland tonight (if defeat it is) on the Blairites.

Corbyn's team laid the ground for this last week following Blair's Brexit speech when they briefed that he was attempting to sabotage the by-elections by making it appear that Labour oppose Brexit. Expect to hear much more of the same in the coming hours and days if Labour fall short in either seat.

10.45 - UPDATE FROM THE COUNT IN COPELAND

My colleague Adam Payne is at the count in Copeland. There's no clear picture yet of which way it's going. He tells us:

"Counting is officially underway here in Whitehaven and the general feeling is that it's too close to call. Labour's election strategist Andrew Gwynne MP is watching closely as counters make their way through the first boxes. One Labour figure I spoke to feared a 'comfortable' victory for the Tories but others wearing red sashes are confident. The Tories in attendance are quietly optimistic, too. It's really on a knife edge as things stand."

10.30 - WHO WILL WIN IN COPELAND AND STOKE?

The Copeland by-election was called after Labour MP and leading Jeremy Corbyn critic, Jamie Reed resigned the seat in order to pursue a new career in the nuclear industry.

In ordinary political circumstances Labour would expect to win a by-election like this by a huge margin. However, the seat is a largely rural and post-industrial constituency with poor infrastructure and many voters hugely disillusioned with the current state of the Labour party, all of which leaves the door wide open for an upset.

The local Labour party ran a strong local candidate Gillian Troughton and have fought an aggressive and sometimes controversial campaign centred on the NHS.

The Tories meanwhile focused on Jeremy Corbyn and his opposition to the nuclear industry which is a major employer in this seat. Despite bookies expecting a clear win for the Conservatives, Labour believes it may just hold on, even by just a few hundred votes.

Journalists often overstate the importance of campaigns, however. Looking purely at the current national opinion polling and applying a universal swing to the seat, it looks like the Tories will very narrowly claim the seat, but it will be very close. Here's the prediction from the Electoral Calculus website:

Copeland
Foto: source Electoral Calculus

Stoke-on-Trent Central:

The Stoke by-election was called after Labour MP Tristram Hunt resigned his seat. The Midlands constituency was initially strongly favoured by commentators (although not by Business Insider) to be claimed by UKIP after new leader Paul Nuttall announced his candidacy. The high proportion of voters who backed Leave in the referendum and local disillusionment with Labour led many to bet on Nuttall becoming his party's second MP in Parliament.

paul nuttall stoke1

Foto: UKIP leader Paul Nuttall arriving to cast his vote at The Willows Primary School polling station in Stoke as voting gets underway in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.sourcePA

However, a dreadful campaign which included a row about whether he lived in the constituency, another huge row about whether he had lost close friends in the Hillsborough disaster, and a much smaller row about a UKIP canvasser urinating in a voters' garden, have all sent Nuttall's odds of victory plummeting, with Labour's Gareth Snell now the strong favourite to win the seat.

Not only are UKIP now unlikely to win but their opponents now believe they could even come third or fourth. A visit in recent days by Theresa May to the constituency suggests the Tories also expect a strong performance, with UKIP now even appearing concerned about the possibility of being overtaken by the Lib Dems.

As with Copeland, the affect of the campaigns on the result to is likely to have been overstated. Looking purely at national opinion polls and universal swing, Stoke looks highly likely to be a clear win for Labour, with the Tories in second place and UKIP coming in a poor third. Here's the prediction from the Electoral Calculus website.

Stoke
Foto: source Electoral Calculus

10.25 - TURNOUT?

Normally at this period of the night during election counts there are reports on Twitter and elsewhere about turnout either being high or low with some even venturing percentages based on anonymous sources. Ignore all of these. They are almost always wrong.

10.15 - COUNTING BEGINS IN COPELAND AND STOKE

The first exciting symbolic moment of the night as the first ballot boxes arrive.

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/834888678392610816

10.10- CORBYN SAYS LABOUR MUST GO ON "WHATEVER THE RESULTS"

Corbyn has just left this message on his Facebook page:

"As polls close in Copeland and Stoke, I want to thank everyone who has been out campaigning for Labour. Today, hundreds have braved Storm Doris, as part of two excellent campaigns, with activists pouring in from across Britain. The political establishment has let down Copeland and Stoke, who have seen their industries gutted, living standards stagnate and hope for a better future for their children and grandchildren decline. Whatever the results, the Labour Party - and our mass membership - must go further to break the failed political consensus, and win power to rebuild and transform Britain."

10.00- THE POLLS HAVE CLOSED

The polls have now closed in the Stoke-on-Trent and Copeland by-elections. What do we know? Well reports from Stoke suggest that Labour are quietly confident of holding onto the seat. However, my colleague Adam Payne tells me that Labour people in Copeland are feeling much less comfortable and believe the Tories have won the day. Are they right? We've no idea.

Not a single vote has been counted yet and we've got a long way to go. The final result isn't expected until at least 3 a.m. tomorrow morning.

9.45 -FINAL BETS

There's lots we'd love to tell you about how things have gone today but reporting restrictions forbid us from doing so until polls close after 10, so stay with us, it will be worth it. In the meantime here's a look at the latest odds according to Ladbrokes:

Copeland

The Tories are favourites to win on 1/3 (that's an implied 75% chance)

Labour are on 9/4 (that's an implied 30% chance)

Stoke

Labour are favourites to win on 4/9 (that's a 69% chance)

UKIP are second favourites on 9/4 (that's a 30% chance);

9.30 P.M. - WELCOME TO BUSINESS INSIDER'S LIVE BLOG ON THE STOKE AND COPELAND BY-ELECTIONS

We have on-the-ground reporting extending way into the early hours of tomorrow morning. Polling stations close at 10 p.m. which will lift restrictions on what can be reported.

For now, here are the main candidates for both constituencies:

Gillian Troughton Jeremy Corbyn
Foto: Corbyn (R) with losing Labour candidate Troughton.sourceDanny Lawson PA Wire/PA Images

Copeland candidates

Michael Guest - Independent

Rebecca Hanson - Liberal Democrats

Trudy Harrison - Conservatives

Roy Ivinson - Independent

Jack Lenox - Green Party

Fiona Mills - UKIP

Gillian Troughton - Labour

Stoke-on-Trent Central candidates

Mohammed Yaqub Akram - Independent

Zulfiqar Ali - Liberal Democrats

Jack Brereton - Conservatives

stoke brereton

Foto: Conservative party candidate Jack Brereton posts leaflets as he campaigns for votes in the Stoke-On-Trent Central by-election on February 20, 2017.sourceGetty

The Incredible Flying Brick - Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Adam Colclough - Green Party

Godfrey Davies - Christian Peoples Alliance

Barbara Fielding - Independent

David Furness - British National Party Local People First

Paul Nuttall - UKIP

Gareth Snell - Labour